China's?economy will grow 9.5 percent this year, led by growing real estate investment and also rising consumption, a government researcher said.

"Real estate investment will expand 30 to 40 percent this year to become the major source that drives investment growth," Zhang Liqun, an economist at the Development Research Center, a think-tank under the State Council, said in a China Securities Journal report yesterday.

Corporate investments are expected to climb 20 percent and contribute to growth in gross domestic product, which rose 8.7 percent last year to 33.5 trillion yuan (US$4.9 trillion), according to Zhang.

The Asian Development Bank has forecast China's economy to grow 8.9 percent this year, and the International Monetary Fund predicted an expansion of 9 percent.

"Consumption will maintain a similar growth rate this year. Employment and incomes are expected to improve this year," Zhang said.

In 2009, consumption was supported by stimulus measures which encouraged domestic purchases of homes and cars, he said.

"The external environment will remain rather grim but will not deteriorate further, and exports will start to grow again," Zhang said.

China overtook Germany as the world's largest exporter last year despite a 16 percent fall in overseas shipments.

China's Consumer Price Index rose 1.9 percent in December from a year earlier, while it gained 0.6 percent in November.

The expectations for inflationary pressure to grow have increased speculation of a rise in interest rate.

Zhang predicted that this year's inflation will grow at less than 3 percent in the country.