The sacred flame of the 14th Asian Games will be lit at Busan City in the Republic of Korea (ROK) on September 29. It will be the first sports meeting between all Asian nations and regions this century. The competition will boast the largest number of athletes ever, making it the biggest event in the history of the Asian Games. Marching onto the field will be the first real opportunity Asian nations have had to display their combined strength since the setbacks caused by the Asian financial crisis.
The 14th Asian Games will hold the greatest number of events, including 38 major competitions and 419 minor contests. Some 44 countries and regions will attend, with participants numbering more than 10,000.
In the upcoming contest, China is expected to remain the dominant force in Asian sports. The long prevailing situation of China, the ROK and Japan facing off against one another, on fairly equal footing, is not expected to change.
The Chinese delegation aims to win first place in the gold medal tally and the overall medal tally. The Asian Games will also give the team a chance to train core athletes expected to attend the 2004 and 2008 Olympic Games in Athens and Beijing respectively. China has organized a delegation consisting of 948 people, 686 of whom are athletes. Of these athletes, only 104 participated the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games, but this young team is expected to achieve their aspirations.
During the approaching Busan Games, the Chinese delegation is expected to win 120 to 130 gold medals. There will be 41 additional smaller events at the 14th Asian Games, but it will still be difficult for the Chinese to win more than 150 gold medals, as reported by the overseas media. This is because most Chinese athletes are young and inexperienced when it comes to large and important international contests. Besides this, there is significant overlap between the dominant events of both China and the ROK. The distance between China and Japan on the track and field is also unlikely to narrow. Additionally, the ROK and Japan are clearly making some progress in other events.
The ROK is considered China?s main rival, with a delegation of over 1,000 people. As with China, the ROK can also dominate in events such as basketball, football, volleyball, wrestling, judo and swimming. The ROK will likely share with China the 12 gold medals in fencing. They are also likely to seize all 16 medals in Tae Kwon Do. During the Bangkok Asian Games, the ROK won 65 gold medals in all. It is easily possible they will win over 80 gold medals at Busan.
Japan won the first six Asian Games, capturing the number one position by seizing more than half of all gold medals. But things changed since then, and China, the ?sleeping dragon,? has awakened. More recently, Japan has had to compete with the ROK for second place. With their dominance in the pool and on the track and field, Japan is estimated to win more than 30 gold medals with little resistance from either China or South Korea. Karate, squash, and Judo have also been traditional Japanese fortes, with the country taking 34 gold medals in these events at the previous Asian Games. What?s more, Japan is strong in baseball, men?s soccer, and other non-Olympic events. Nonetheless, Japan is unlikely to steal second place from the ROK, with a difference of about 20 gold medals predicted. In all, China, the ROK, and Japan are expected to accumulate around 260 gold medals during the Games.
The second group of contenders, made up of Iran, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and some three or four other regions, all have the potential to win more than ten gold medals each. Some other smaller countries and regions are predicted to play a more significant role in these Asian Games with a number of teams expected to win their first gold or silver at the event.
Kazakhstan, from central Asia, has been a strong competitor that should not be over looked. The country traditionally performs well in weight lifting and wrestling. Kazakhstan beat Thailand, winning 25 gold medals at the last Asian Games held in Thailand, taking the leading position among the second group of contenders. In the upcoming Asian Games, Kazakhstan should win about 20 gold medals.
Thailand, which also won more than 20 gold medals during the last Asian Games, though with the advantage of being the host country, is also a strong challenger within this second group. Thailand should easily get ten gold medals at the Busan Asian Games.
Malaysia, Indonesia, and Chinese Hong Kong all have their advantages in certain events and their performances will play a key role in the distribution of gold medals, influencing outcomes for China, the ROK, and Japan. The ten teams, following China, the ROK, and Japan, are expected to collect more than 120 gold medals at the Busan Asian Games.
A total of 23 teams won gold medals at the 13th Bangkok Asian Games, and 33 succeeded in taking home medals. It?s estimated that about 30 teams will win gold, and more than 33 teams will take home medals from the 14th Busan Asian Games.
(china.org.cn, translated by Li Jingrong and James Liu, September 23, 2002)
