Dr. Li Peilin, deputy director of the Sociology Study Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts a faster economic growth and deepened reforms for China next year.
According to Dr. Li's analysis, China's social development will feature five basic characteristics in 2004. First, as a new round of fast economic growth is likely to take place, cities and towns are on the threshold of the third-phrase of the development boom, boosted by house, auto, communication and education consumptions; second, a more mature outlook of balanced development is taking shape as the existing development mode dominated by simple economic growth comes to an end; third, reform will meet hard times because every action to deepen reform is closely related to adjustments of interest distribution and thus the issue of how to distribute benefits that reform has turned out will gradually find its way onto the official agenda; fourth, the expansion of China's opening-up and the timetable of its WTO commitments, which themselves are outcomes of reform, will in turn push forward in-depth reforms in politics, economy and society; and fifth, conflicts among various social concepts will yield new interest-related disagreements on a number of key issues of social development.
Here follows a forecast of China's social development in 2004 with an analysis on some social problems that might occur:
I. The new strategy of balanced development will be implemented and exert an all-round influence on allocations of economic, political and social resources. What needs noticing is that China's economic development has now been on the track guided and adjusted by market.
II. Economic growth will see a new round of upsurges that might break the 7-8 percent annual increase rates of recent years. The consumption market will hopefully bid goodbye to its doldrums and the deflation of recent years. Overheated developments could happen in a few sectors, which will result in shortage of raw materials, energy and capital. The government will adopt some new measures to prevent the national economy from overheating and offset overproduction and new economic imbalances.
III. The regional disparity in development between south and north China will, like the case between east and west China, further widen, as bigger influxes of investment flood the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.
IV. The imbalance between economic growth and social development will be exacerbated. How to reconcile the sluggish stock market, unemployment and low income with economic growth will prove a hard nut to crack.
V. Despite many doubts and puzzlements, China's recently unveiled strategy to revitalize its northeast areas will become a new development focus on a par with the accelerated development in southeast China and the West China Development Drive.
VI. College graduates will face a tougher job market and their salary expectancy for first jobs will continue to fall, which will force colleges to reform their curriculums and specialties offered.
VII. As industrialization and urbanization pick up and land prices expected to keep rising, a new round of "enclosure movement" will be solicited. As a result, conflicts triggered by land disputes and residential relocations will escalate.
VIII. The worsening shortage of urban water resources will snowball into one of the major factors hindering urban development. The spread of AIDS, tuberculosis and hepatitis B, together with the pollution of surface drinking water in rural areas, poses a formidable threat to public health.
IX. As China's opening-up expands and its modernization makes headway, human capital fostering has become an ever-important mission for the country. Mediocre human resources seem to be limitless while high-caliber talent has always been in short supply. Manpower education and training practitioners are faced with new requests and talent fostering and capability building have emerged as a major social concern.
X. The lately hike of grain prices is a natural result of the decline of comparative market profit of agricultural production. Relying mainly on domestic production and with appropriate imports, China won't see food security turn into a serious problem hampering its overall economic and social development.
(China.org.cn by Chen Chao and Daragh Moller, December 25, 2003)
