|
China's booming investment, exports and consumer spending have prompted global investment banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Credit Suisse First Boston, to raise their 2003 economic growth forecasts for the country.
Goldman sachs said yesterday it has raised its estimate to 8.1 percent from 7 percent, and Credit Suisse First Boston lifted its forecast to 8.6 percent from 8 percent.
The investment banks have become more optimistic about China's economic prospects since the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic ended.
"Obviously, the SARS-related impact on the domestic economy has proved to be more confined and transitory than expected," said the Goldman Sachs report.
China's exports were up 27 percent in August, beating a previous forecast of decline in the second half of the year.
"During the SARS out-break, people had pessimistic estimation for export growth in the latter half," said Zhang Jun, professor of China Center, Fudan University. "But China's exporters seem to have quickly made up the loss of orders."
In august, China's fixed-asset investment rose 30.7 percent from the same period last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.
Last month, fixed-asset investment reached 361 billion yuan (US$43.5 billion). The figure increased 32 percent to 2.2 trillion yuan in the first eight months, compared to 1.7 trillion yuan in the same period last year.
Since fixed-asset investment accounts for about 40 percent of China's gross domestic product, the continuous rapid growth has aroused concerns about an over-heated economy.
A national Development and Reform Commission report last month warned that some sectors have shown signs of over-heated investment that may put banks at financial risks.
However, Goldman Sachs remained positive on the sector, based on stable growth in retail sales.
Growth in China's retail sales has been steady at between 8 and 10 percent in the past year. For an economy growing at an average 8 to 10 percent annually in nominal terms, this is by no means excessive, it said.
After staging a remarkable V-shaped recovery in July, China's retail sales grew 9.9 percent last month.
(Shanghai Daily September 18, 2003)
|
