By Zheng Yu
Last month's US-Russian nuclear arms reduction agreement and a pact with NATO that makes Russia a limited partner of the alliance have further improved Russia's relationship with the West.
This was followed by President Jiang Zemin's visit to Russia for the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. At the summit, the presidents of the six member nations endorsed their charter and agreed to establish an anti-terrorism centre in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek.
Just how to read the relationship between China and Russia in light of these events has become a hot issue.
That the strategic cooperation between China and Russia is not aimed at any third country is no mere slogan or diplomatic catch phrase. It is not the diplomatic aim of China and Russia to work in concert against any third country. The strategic cooperation is aimed only at deterring any outside policy that might possibly hurt the national interests of the two countries.
The strategic accord between China and Russia will benefit both countries and the United States as well if the latter is willing to give up its unilateralism to a certain degree and cooperate with China or Russia in some areas. The US-Russian nuclear arm reduction agreement, for example tallies with the nuclear security interests of China, too.
The Sino-Russian strategic cooperation agreement is based on the common interests of the two nations. China has played an active role in supporting the diplomatic struggle of Russia in the area of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty because it believes that breaking strategic stability will hurt both countries. In other words, any unilateral action by Russia or China that hurts the two countries' strategic cooperation may hurt the national interests of the country initiating such action.
The national strength of the United States far exceeds that of Russia or China, or even the total strength of the two countries. Thus the United States can take tough policies toward both Russia and China. In addition, the US Government can adopt cooperative policies according to its own strategic needs, as it did after the September 11 event. It is clear that the United States adjusts its Russia policy and China policy in accord with its own global strategic concerns, but not with the aim of alienating the two. And improved US-Russia relations and Sino-US relations will not affect each other.
Sino-Russian strategic cooperation cannot cover all fields of their foreign policy and the two do not seek rigid restrictions of the other's policies. Also, the focuses of the two countries' strategic interests are different due to different geographical locations and national situations. All this means that China and Russia cannot depend only on their bilateral strategic cooperation to realize their respective strategic goals.
The current change in Sino-Russian strategic cooperation has been caused by the policy adjustment of the Russian Government and also the alteration of the international situation. The Russian Government has stopped talking about the creation of a multi-polar world and opposition to unilateralism, the former theoretical base of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation. The US withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty has also changed the parameters of cooperation between Russia and China over maintaining strategic stability. The US military deployment in Central Asia for operations in Afghanistan after the September 11 event has undermined the functioning of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and complicated regional security cooperation between China and Russia. It should be admitted, however, that Russia has not accepted the principle of a unipolar world and the new relations between Russia and NATO have set certain restrictions on NATO. The nuclear arms reduction agreement will also help limit the United States' unilateral nuclear armament plans. All these factors are in line with international interests as well as China's interests.
It should also be emphasized that the underlying reason for the limitation of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation lies in the limits of the two countries' national strength. They cannot satisfy their own pressing strategic needs of security and development merely through their bilateral cooperation. Thus, Sino-Russian strategic cooperation cannot be the most important tool used to realize their foreign policy goals.
After September 11, the focus of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation has shifted from global and regional-level cooperation to bilateral cooperation. For instance, the two countries have pressed on with planning their gas pipeline project. The Russians want to develop the economy of their eastern regions. On the other hand, the huge pipeline project will help China maintain sustainable economic development and energy security. This cooperation, like cooperative projects conducted by large Russian and Chinese enterprises, is part of the two countries' national development strategy and an important new field of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation. Also, bilateral cooperation on military technology has strategic significance in reviving Russia's military industry and upgrading China's strength in national defence. At the same time, the mechanisms and potential for strategic cooperation on global issues and regional security still exist.
Undoubtedly, Russia will by no means yield to other's will, while the United States will not play on equal terms with other members of the international community and always wants to force its own will upon others. Thus Sino-Russian strategic cooperation, based on common needs and interests, will develop as a defence against power politics and unilateralism. The effectiveness of this strategic cooperation will depend on not only common needs and interests, but also the cooperative diplomatic capacity of the two nations.
(The author is a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
(China Daily June 10, 2002)
