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The war on Iraq launched by the United States is an important part of the US Mideast strategy, and the war will only bring instability and make the area more turbulent, a Chinese expert on the Middle East told Xinhua in an exclusive interview in Beijing Thursday.
An Huihou, a former Chinese ambassador to Egypt, said the United States regards the war against Iraq as a question of vital strategic importance.
He said the United States adjusted its national security strategy after the September 11 terrorist attack and gave anti-terrorism top priority.
Advocated by the United States, an international anti-terrorism alliance was formed, An said.
However, along with the development of the "war" on terrorism, the United States found that, although the base of Bin Laden's terrorist organization was in Afghanistan, its roots were in the Middle East. The political system, religion, education, life style and the press were all considered a cradle of terrorism and hatred for the United States, he said.
The United States thus set out a policy of conformity, in which the United States intends to re-shape the Middle East according to its values and mode of democracy, and the war on Iraq is the first step of this policy, An said.
The former ambassador stressed that, as an important part of the US Mideast strategy, the war on Iraq and the overthrow of the Iraqi government was not an isolated event.
The United States has said that a pro-US and democratic regime will be set up in Iraq after the war, An said, adding that the United States will use this regime as a model to implement US-style democracy. It considers that this is the only way to eliminate the roots of terrorism.
By the war, the United States seeks not only to disarm Iraq of any possible weapons of massive destruction (WMD), but also to overthrow the Iraqi government and completely control Iraq, including its oil resources. Then, it intends to establish a US-dominated area in the Mideast in order to ensure its control of oil in the region, he said.
An said, Iraq was chosen as the first target because of three reasons:
Firstly, although Iraq had been under UN sanctions for 12 years after the Gulf War, it had not yielded and continued to challenge the supremacy of the United States, which the US found unbearable.
Secondly, the United States believed that Iraq had, at the very least, the capability to develop WMD, since it could make use of its rich oil resourses for this purpose. An anti-US regime with WMD would constitute a major threat for the United States. Moreover, the WMD could be provided to terrorist groups.
Thirdly, Iraq has rich oil resourses. About 65 percent of the world's oil is in the Middle East, and Iraq has the world's second largest oil resourses. Oil is a strategic material, and it can be said that the country which controls petroleum controls the global economy. The United States must control oil resources because it wants to establish its supremacy in the world.
An said that the United States has encountered many difficulties in carrying out its Mideast strategy.
Firstly, the US encountered a worldwide anti-war movement before launching the war on Iraq, creating an unfavorable image in terms of morality.
Secondly, without authorization from the UN Security Council, the war on Iraq lacked legal legitimacy. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said that the United States' launching the war on Iraq without UN authorization was not in conformity with the spirit of the UN Charter and the norms of international law.
Thirdly, most countries opposed the war on Iraq, indicating that the US was politically isolated.
Finally, the US has encountered military difficulties due to the following miscalculations:
-- It did not expect that it would be unable to open the northern front due to Turkey;
-- It underestimated the ability of the Iraqi people to fight against its troops;
-- It underestimated Saddam Hussein's capacity to control the situation;
-- It also underestimated Iraq's strategic preparations for the war; and
-- It underestimated the difficulties brought about by the climate.
An said, although the power of the two sides is unequal, the war, due to its lack of legitimacy and morality, is opposed and resisted by the Iraqi people. Therefore, it is hard to say how long the war will last and how high a price the Americans will pay.
But it is certain that the situation is not as optimistic as the US had believed it to be, said An.
He said that the United States launching a war against an Arab country will arouse even stronger feelings of opposition and hatred for the United States among the Arab people in the Middle East. Such feelings, will, in turn, stimulate fundamentalism and extremism, fomenting even more terrorist attacks directed at the United States.
(Xinhua News Agency April 4, 2003)
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