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On May 28 the US Defense Department released its 2004 assessment of China's military might, evaluating the Chinese mainland's military strategy and equipment. It also assessed the cross-Straits situation and Taiwan's armed forces.
This marked a renewed US effort for evaluating the strength of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), since the first report was created by the Pentagon in 1999.
In the latest report, the Pentagon claimed China's defense spending in 2003 ranged from US$50 billion to US$70 billion, ranking it third in the world behind the United States and Russia. Based upon this assessment, it further asserted the Chinese mainland is pursuing aggressive military armament and deployment.
This judgment is completely groundless.
Even this year, China's military spending is only expected to be a little more than US$20 billion. Its military has long remained at low-level and low-investment construction stages and its military personnel are relatively poor when measured against a number of foreign counterparts.
Nonetheless, it is very natural for a country to have a moderate increment in its military outlay in order to raise its military personnel's living conditions.
Certainly, part of China's increased military spending is aimed at strengthening its military capability, given that its current equipment and combat forces are incompatible with its international status.
It also lags behind such neighbors as Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and India in terms of weapons quality -- especially land, naval and air armaments.
In contrast, last year the United States injected more than US$400 billion into its national defense, nearly one half the world's total of US$900 billion. However, the world's largest military power remains curiously preoccupied with other countries' military expenses.
The Pentagon said in its report the mainland's military upgrade is not exclusively targeted at Taiwan. Beijing expects to reach the world's top level within the next 10 to 15 years, it argued. This was also a self-contradicting judgment.
On the one hand, the United States said China's military development is more than 20 years behind that of the United States itself. On the other hand, it asserted that China's military will catch up with the world-level capability in less than 15 years.
It is true that China's military is steadily advancing, but so are the United States and other countries. But China's military forces cannot match the United States even if the latter makes no advancement at all.
China is now faced with different security concerns from the United States, which has already taken non-traditional issues, such as terrorism and transnational crimes as its most pressing security threats. For China, traditional security still serves as its top concern, although the country also pays attention to some non-traditional issues.
China is yet to realize the final reunification of its territory, which remains an arduous and overwhelming task. With this highest priority unrealized, it would be unrealistic for the country to divert its limited military resources to the pursuit of "aggressive" objectives.
The ongoing information-oriented military reforms and adjustments carried out by China are only the country's effort to adapt itself to the emerging current of the world's military development. They also serve as China's necessary alternative for effectively coping with various potential challenges to its national interests.
Currently, Taiwan, part of China, is upgrading its arsenal at the behest of the United States in an attempt to pursue independence by force. Separatist forces on the island have openly drawn up a schedule for independence, constituting a serious security challenge to the whole China.
Thus it is necessary for the mainland to improve its military deterrence to stop Taiwan separatist forces' risky actions.
In the report, the Pentagon predicts the PLA's successful modernization will lead to a catastrophic strike on Taiwan. By saying so, the Pentagon is attempting to portray a terrible prospect for Taiwan to make the island more dependent upon the United States.
It is well known that China has long adhered to a defensive military policy.
The mainland's military development is mainly against independence forces and foreign interventionists, but not against Taiwan compatriots. It is Taiwan's separatists that have constituted the largest uncertainty and placed the island in a possible destructive posture. It has become crystal clear that the more modernized the mainland's military is, the more possible for the peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question.
How the current mainland-Taiwan dispute will be resolved -- peacefully or by force -- will be determined by Taiwan authorities, not the mainland.
The report deliberately debased Taiwan's military capability, saying its land, naval and air forces lack a coordinated and combined combat capability.
However, the fact is that since the mid-1990s Taiwan's military has been highly capable of engaging in electronic and information warfare.
The United States has provided Taiwan with sophisticated information systems to bring the island to an advantageous position over the mainland in information-commanding ability, enabling it to carry out overwhelming monitoring of its rival in the early stage of conflicts.
By so doing, the United States is attempting to set up a quasi-military alliance with Taiwan so that it can completely carry out backstage control of a possible military conflict in the Straits.
The report also made speculations about the mainland's strategy and tactics in case of a conflict. It said the PLA would possibly simulate the Iraq War-model in its military conflicts with Taiwan, featuring accurate missile strikes.
It is a simple fact that no two wars are completely the same since ancient times.
Such speculation by the Pentagon only demonstrates its underestimation of the PLA's creativity. The Chinese army has never followed the heels of others. Since the day of its birth in 1928, it has formed a set of unique fighting models, methods and rules distinct from foreign troops.
The US army has its own wisdom, so does China's. The United States should not doubt the Chinese people's wisdom and ability to deal with any military conflict in its own way.
It is not difficult to see the Pentagon report smacks of anti-China sentiment. But the overstating document will possibly misguide Washington to a mistaken area.
It is nonsensical for the Pentagon to cook up such a report at the time when China and the United States are deepening their military exchanges.
The United States has always attempted to set itself a new rival since the collapse of the former Soviet Union. A lot of its military exercises have demonstrated that China has become the new target.
But for the United States to subjectively create an imaginary enemy is an outmoded idea and does not serve the US national interests.
The US is still accustomed to judging other countries by the old mentality of how much they invest in national defense and how many tanks and missiles they possess.
But the world's current security situation has made it impossible for a country to make an accurate evaluation of another's military power.
The latest report only reinforces the impression that the Pentagon remains stuck in the Cold War mentality.
(China Daily June 30, 2004)
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