Thai caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has claimed
victory in Sunday's snap election, a poll called by him three years
earlier in hopes of defusing protracted street protests and rallies
demanding his resignation. But the outcome apparently failed to
appease his foes, who vowed to go on with their rallies until the
premier steps down.
Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said Tuesday the
opposition would run in by-elections if Thaksin quit now. The
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which spearheaded two months
of street rallies against Thaksin, threatens to resume their
protests on Friday unless the premier quit.
In a live interview Monday night, Thaksin claimed his Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) party's leading place in last weekend's election,
garnering 57 percent of the total popular votes. He said according
to unofficial results, the party received 18 million out of the
total 28 million votes, down from 19 million last year.
Most of by-elections had to be held in Thailand's south, an
opposition stronghold which long complained of the government's
failure to curb violence along the strip bordering Malaysia.
There is no guarantee any further rounds of ballot-casting could
produce MPs, in which a minimum 20 percent eligible votes are
required, said the Election Commission (EC).
However, in the vast North and Northeast region, Thaksin-led TRT
has scored another mandate relying on the unwaiving support from
some 60 million farmers who benefited from the government's
populist policies.
Swore in five years ago, the CEO-style telecom tycoon has
steered his country out of the shadow of 1997 financial crisis by
undertaking structural reforms and boosting consumer demand.
The then government launched mass poverty-lifting plans, hailed
by the grass-root civilians, but lambasted by opposition and
critics as means of buying votes in a more sophisticated form.
Through his cabinet's strenuous efforts, Thailand declared the
early repayment of International Monetary Fund (IMF) debts in 2003.
The stock market rebounded, real estate boomed and economy
maintained a continuous growth. This year, the Thai Chamber of
Commerce forecast up 5 percent economic growth, compared to 4.5
percent in 2005.
Thaksin also won high marks for his leadership in responding to
the Dec. 26 tsunami in 2004 and the efforts to contain bird flu.
The high-profile performance helped him secure a second term in
2005 with an overwhelming grip of 377 parliamentary seats, making
him the first ever premier being re-elected in decades in a country
long ruled by military and disturbed by coup.
But some of the shine has gone off Thaksin's reputation. Critics
and Bangkok urban elite accused him of everything from abuse of
power to mismanagement of the southern unrest as well as
corruption, abuse of power and cronyism.
The anti-Thaksin demonstration ballooned following Thaksin's
family sold their 50-percent stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms giant
he founded before entering politics, to a Singapore investment
company late January.
The 1.9 billion dollars tax-free deal sparks allegations of
wrongdoing and abuse of power by the critics and became the focal
point for an escalating political confrontation which have been
brewing among portions of the middle class people in Bangkok.
On Feb. 24, the premier abruptly dissolved the parliament and
called snap elections on April 2 as a way out of political dilemma
which has thrown the country onto the brink of chaos.
Despite the boycott by three major opposition parties, Thaksin
has determined to push forward the polls which he portraited as a
referendum on his rule.
After the futile appeal for Thailand's revered King to name a
new prime minister, the opposition rejected Thaksin's offer to form
a national unity government once he returns with fresh mandate.
Buoyed with the solid support from mass countryside population
in the north, Thaksin has promised not to take office if mustering
less than 50 percent of the votes.
Still, the boycott of the three major opposition parties
combined with the disqualification of some 400 obscure-party
candidates left Thaksin's party unopposed in 276 out of the total
400 constituencies, nearly 70 percent of districts.
While claiming victory, the embattled premier floated the idea
to set up a panel of eminent people to resolve political crisis,
which was again turned down by his foes.
The Democratic Party said they were not interested in the offer
and no longer trust the prime minister.
Media mogul Sonthi Limthongkul, who launched the anti-Thaksin
campaign last September, said the offer was another attempt by
Thaksin to maintain the grip on power and would go ahead with a
large-scale demonstration scheduled for Friday.
Chamlong Srimuang, a former politician and core leader of anti-
Thaksin rallies, on April 2 affirmed the mainstream protest would
be resumed after the election until the prime minister resigns.
Democrats have repeatedly accused TRT of hacking into the EC's
database to enable disqualified candidates to run apart from paying
candidates to make them contest in the poll.
Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said the only certain outcome of
the poll was a political mess that could ultimately embroil the
Constitutional Court, suggesting no quick fix to a crisis that has
wrecked the stock market and economic growth forecasts.
The country may get a new premier, but questions of legality and
legitimacy will likely grow louder. This is likely to take a toll
on the economy as foreign and local investors wait to see what
becomes of the political uncertainty.
Domestic consumption and even the export sector could take a hit
if this situation is prolonged, said political analysts.
According to Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thailand's Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) growth could drop to some 3.2 percent from the
projected 4.5 percent if the conflict remain unsolved. The country
will fail to move forward with several free trade agreement and a
portfolio of infrastructure mega-projects.
The outlook for constitutional amendments also seems bleak,
given that the civic and pro-democracy groups are unlikely to
support supervision by TRT of such a crucial process, they
said.
"Thaksin is the only candidate. Even if he wins, it will be
difficult for him to rule because the country is split," said
Chalongphob Sussangkarn, president of the Thailand Development
Research Institute, an independent think tank.
(Xinhua News Agency April 5, 2006 )
