By Hideki Kan
Cabinet ministers and influential lawmakers of Japan's Liberal
Democratic Party have made comments calling for debate on whether
Japan should possess nuclear weapons. The move was triggered by the
recent nuclear test by North Korea.
The comments have three consequences. The first is that they
overshadow the problem of recognizing past history. This is
apparent in the way North Korea's announcement and implementation
of the nuclear test kept the issue of "historical friction" from
coming to the fore in Japan-China and Japan-South Korea summit
talks.
The second aspect is that the comments serve as a diplomatic
card that can be played to spur China to increase pressure on North
Korea. US President George W. Bush has said that he is aware that
China is worried about this development.
The third point is that by making such comments, politicians can
gauge public reaction. Because Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said
Japan would abide by its three non-nuclear principles, it is not a
matter that the government is prepared to discuss internally.
Historical context
Still, an examination of the comments in a historical context is
warranted.
Japanese politicians have referred to "nuclear weapons" at various
junctures in the past.
The US National Archives has a record of the Japan-US summit in
Washington in January 1965. According to the declassified document,
then Prime Minister Eisaku Sato personally said that if China had
nuclear weapons, the Japanese should also have them. Apparently,
the comment was made in response to China's nuclear test in October
the previous year.
In 1968 and 1970, the Japanese Cabinet Intelligence and Research
Office secretly commissioned a project titled "A Basic Study
Concerning Japan's Nuclear Policy". The report advised against
nuclear armament. But some Foreign Ministry officials expressed the
view that the nuclear armament option be kept open.
Prime Minister Sato's comment was made when the United States
was pressing Japan to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
(NPT). In that sense, the comment was used as a "diplomatic
card".
At the same time, the card provided the grounds for Japan to
realize the return of Okinawa, which had been under US control,
"without nuclear weapons and on a par with the Japanese
mainland".
Sato maintained that the signing of the NPT meant Japan must be
nuclear-free and any nuclear weapons on Okinawa would contradict
that position.
Not just textiles
At the time, Japan's rising exports of textile products to the
United States was creating trade friction. With the United States
linking the textile issue with Okinawa's reversion that Japan was
eager to advance, observers called the negotiations "Okinawa in
exchange for textiles". In fact, the negotiations also concerned
the removal of nuclear weapons from the island.
One important point should be noted. By using the argument for
nuclear armament as a diplomatic card, Japan risks causing distrust
to develop with the United States and neighboring countries.
Furthermore, influential US newspapers reported their concern
over a "nuclear domino effect" in East Asia.
Washington shares the concern. US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice has said that no one thinks the change in the regional nuclear
balance caused by Japan's nuclear armament would improve
security.
Successive US administrations have feared that if Japan were to
acquire nuclear weapons, it could distance itself from the United
States. If Japan causes the United States to harbor such anxiety
again, it would greatly undermine bilateral relations.
Sato's comment was kept confidential for many years.
Furthermore, he said that his view differed from Japan's domestic
public sentiment. It shows that the public's strong anti-nuclear
sentiment served as a control brake on the argument for nuclear
armament.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Taro Aso and Shoichi Nakagawa,
chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, are making reference
to the subject in public. Once again, public opinion is being
tested.
Hideki Kan is professor of Japan-US diplomatic history at
Seinan Jo Gakuin University and professor emeritus at Kyushu
University.
(China Daily via agencies January 11, 2007)
