Russia has decided that if it cannot beat US plans for a missile
shield in Europe, the next best option is to join Washington in
finding an alternative system that both sides can stomach.
Russia reacted furiously to Washington's initiative to station
elements of a missile shield near Russia's borders, threatening in
response to target its own missiles at Europe and prompting talk of
a new Cold War.
But in the past month President Vladimir Putin has changed his
tactics, toning down the threats and instead proposing a collective
missile shield in which Russia and European states would
participate along with the United States.
"There is definitely some kind of evolution," said Viktor
Kremenyuk, deputy head of the USA and Canada Institute, a Moscow
thinktank. "A confrontational approach is giving way to a more
balanced attitude."
"His (Putin's) initiative acknowledges the fact that a global
missile defense system makes sense and we have a contribution to
offer," Kremenyuk said. "Taking part in such a system would be in
Moscow's interests, to make sure it is not targeted against
Russia."
That does not mean the Kremlin has entirely dropped its threats.
First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said last week that if
the US shield plan went ahead, Russia would bring new missiles
right up to its border with the European Union.
But a Kremlin official signaled that was part of a carefully
coordinated approach: a stick to complement the carrot proffered by
Putin. "Ivanov does not make wild statements," said the
official.
The US wants to base interceptor missiles and a radar in Poland
and the Czech Republic, part of a shield it says is needed to
protect against missile attacks from what it calls "rogue states"
such as Iran and North Korea.
Moscow says the plan will upset the delicate strategic balance
and officials there say they suspect Russia, not the "rogue
states", is the real target.
Putin's counter-proposals - which include offering the US
military use of a Russian-operated radar station and a center in
Moscow to share data on missile attacks - have been received
cautiously in Washington.
Russian analysts said the offer was more than just a bluff to
put a spanner in the works of the US plan. "This is a pretty
serious proposal," said Gennady Yevstafyev, analyst with the
PIR-Center think tank in Moscow.
US President George W. Bush said the offer was "very innovative"
and worthy of study, but gave no firm commitments when he met Putin
last week at the Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, on the
Atlantic coast.
In fact, say analysts, the Kremlin itself does not expect Bush
to say "yes" to the proposals.
"Should Bush accept the Russian offer, he would have to review
the basics of missile defense plans and forget about billions of
dollars already invested in the program," said independent analyst
Alexander Goltz. "It's hard to imagine."
But Russia is playing a long game: if Bush cannot climb down on
the missile shield plan, whoever replaces him after the US
presidential election in 2008 may have more room for maneuver.
Its approach in the meantime is to lock Washington into
technical discussions on Putin's proposals in the hope that these
will turn into a firm deal after Bush steps down.
"It seems the best tactic now is to maintain a professional
dialogue and engage in practical projects that the presidential
successors will have to follow," said Kremenyuk.
Russia is in no hurry. Though Putin is due to step down next
year, he is widely expected to retain influence, and his successor
is likely to be a member of his own team who will stick to the same
foreign policies.
And Russia, buoyed by a booming economy and flexing its muscles
again on the world stage, believes it is powerful enough to get its
way in the end.
"We can afford to take a gentle approach because Russia now is
in good shape," said Yevstafyev.
(China Daily via agencies July 12, 2007)
