By Lau Nai-keung
Monitoring the progress of the United Nations climate change
conference in Bali, Indonesia, was a bit like watching a battle
unfolding in front of me.
No, this was not a war between rich countries - particularly the
United States, which has been polluting our sky for the past 300
years and continues to do so on a large and escalating scale - and
poor countries - with China as a glaring example, though it has
entered the polluting game late and committed much lesser crimes
per capita, but is seen to be making its best effort to clear up
the mess. This is all about mankind confronting a common problem,
one that might put us out of existence. It is our common war.
Report upon report from different groups of independent
scientists have clearly warned us that we are heading toward a
global catastrophe and are about to pass the point of no return.
The most recent scientific data from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) clearly shows that action to reduce emissions
must be taken now. Something urgent and drastic has to be done
about the situation if we are to have any hope of heading off our
common extinction. We have the means to slow down climatic change,
and even ultimately reverse the situation and get back to a
healthier ecology, but it seems we just do not have the collective
wisdom to do so.
The adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 was a major step forward in
tackling the problem of global warming. After three conferences,
members of UNFCCC signed the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, which
came into force starting in February 2005. The protocol requires
developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
by at least 5 percent from 1990 levels by 2012. The Bush
administration, together with a few other developed countries,
refused to ratify the protocol, initially on the pretext that there
was no concrete evidence of global warming. Then they claimed there
was no clear connection between increases in GHG emissions and
climate change and ultimately they fell back on rejecting specific
targets for emissions cuts.
Just before the Bali conference opened, newly elected Australian
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd signed the protocol, marking a clear
departure from the untenable US position.
The purpose of the Bali conference was to achieve a breakthrough
in the form of a global roadmap to fight climate change in the
period after 2012, the year the first commitment period covered by
the Kyoto Protocol expires. The main goal was threefold: to launch
negotiations on a climate change deal for the post-2012 period, to
set the agenda for these negotiations and to reach agreement on
when these negotiations should conclude. The European Union and
developing nations had pushed for the agenda to state that
industrialized nations should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
by 25 to 40 percent by 2020, but the US joined several other
countries in rejecting targets.
China's position has been clear and consistent, as spelled out
by President Hu Jintao at the APEC forum in Sydney in September.
The country supports the principle of "common but differentiated
responsibilities" enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol. Developed
countries should face up to their historical responsibility and
their currently high emissions, strictly abide by the emissions
reduction targets set forth in the Kyoto Protocol, honor their
commitment to making technology transfers and providing financial
support to developing countries and continue to take the lead in
reducing emissions after 2012. Developing countries should, in
light of conditions on the ground at home, take due measures,
including introducing and applying advanced clean technologies,
improving their capacity to mitigate and adapt to climate change
and contributing their share to tackling climate change.
Again, the US has dragged its feet on the issue. The US argues
that talks should first focus on ways to reduce GHG emissions, and
then discuss specific targets. In the end, negotiators had to agree
to US demands in order to salvage any hope of reaching an agreement
over the next two years.
With or without the US in the game, the Kyoto Protocol carries
on. In order to give the signatory countries a certain degree of
flexibility in meeting their emissions reduction targets, the
protocol has developed three innovative mechanisms - known as
Emissions Trading, the Joint Implementation and the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM). These market-based mechanisms allow
developed countries to earn and trade emissions credits through
projects implemented in other countries, which they can then use to
meet their own commitments. Still, the EU came under fire from
environmental activists in Bali for not offering poor countries
explicit funding to help fight climate change and cut greenhouse
gas emissions.
As the Bali conference wrapped up, rich countries committed to
distributing more funds and technology to poor countries.
As a party to the Kyoto Protocol, China has done its part and is
also a beneficiary of these arrangements. Nearly 40 percent of
global carbon trading involves China, and in 2005 more than 90
percent of wind energy projects were financed through the CDM. The
capacity of wind turbines in China doubled last year, and is
expected to double again this year.
According to an authoritative report, with sufficient
incentives, China has the capacity to generate 1.2 gW of wind
power, about three times as much energy generated by the Three
Gorges Dam. China is now among the top three manufacturers of
photo-voltaic cells in the world. The market is still relatively
small, but 60 percent of the world's solar-powered water heaters
are in China. By 2020 the country will generate 1.18 gW of
electricity with wind turbines, and 2.5 gW with photo-voltaic
cells. The two together will make up about 9 percent of the power
generated in China in 2020.
The authorities have promised the country will generate 15
percent of its energy using renewable sources by 2020. They also
committed to improving the country's energy efficiency by 20
percent and to close up to 1,000 of its least efficient coal plants
in the 2006-10 period. These targets are difficult to meet. In
2006, for example, China managed to improve its energy efficiency
by only 1.6 percent rather than the 4 percent it had promised. The
country will have to work harder, and more international support is
badly needed. China just cannot fight this global war against
climatic change alone.
The author, from Hong Kong, is a member of the National
Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative
Conference
(China Daily December 19, 2007)
